Russia has been quietly shipping refined petroleum to North Korea, potentially violating a UN-imposed cap on such exports. Under UN sanctions, North Korea is limited to importing 500,000 barrels of refined products per year, but in March 2024 alone, Russia shipped over 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum to the reclusive nation.
The US and South Korea launched a task force in March 2024 aimed at preventing North Korea from procuring illicit oil, as the Ukraine war has precipitated a renewed relationship between Russia and North Korea, driven by Russia’s need for ammunition and North Korea’s need for food, energy, and military technology.
UN Sanctions Regime
The UN Security Council has imposed a comprehensive sanctions regime on North Korea since 2006 to curb its nuclear and missile programs. These sanctions include:
- Prohibiting the trade of weapons, military equipment, and dual-use technologies with North Korea.
- Freezing assets of individuals and entities involved in the nuclear program.
- Restricting scientific cooperation related to nuclear and missile activities.
- Banning exports of minerals, coal, seafood, and other key commodities from North Korea.
- Capping imports of oil and refined petroleum products to 500,000 barrels per year.
The sanctions also target North Korean labor exports, cyberattacks, money laundering, and human rights violations.
| Key UN Sanctions Resolutions |
|---|
| Resolution 1718 (2006) |
| Resolution 1874 (2009) |
| Resolution 2087 (2013) |
| Resolution 2094 (2013) |
| Resolution 2270 (2016) |
| Resolution 2321 (2016) |
| Resolution 2371 (2017) |
| Resolution 2375 (2017) |
| Resolution 2397 (2017) |
These resolutions condemn North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests, call for cessation of illicit activities, and authorize interdiction and inspection of North Korean cargo. They also urge North Korea to rejoin the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and return to the Six-Party Talks.
However, the sanctions regime faces challenges, including evasion, lack of enforcement by some countries, and potential watering down to secure support from China and Russia. Many experts question whether sanctions alone can achieve denuclearization, suggesting they need to be combined with diplomacy. Russia’s recent veto of the UN Panel of Experts’ mandate renewal has disrupted monitoring and reporting on North Korea’s activities.
Russian Fuel Shipments
Violating UN Sanctions
Satellite imagery analysis shows ongoing high-level utilization of the Tikhoretsk Munitions Storage Facility in Russia, as well as a dramatic increase in DPRK-Russia border rail traffic after the Kim-Putin summit. Analysis of Najin Port activities also suggests continued arms transfers from North Korea to Russia.
In March 2024 alone, Russia shipped over 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum to North Korea, violating the UN-imposed cap of 500,000 barrels per year. This covert shipment of refined petroleum appears to be part of a deepening cooperation between Russia and NK, with Russia potentially helping North Korea circumvent international sanctions and continue its weapons development.
Arms-for-Aid Exchange
According to South Korea’s defense minister, North Korea has shipped around 7,000 containers filled with munitions and other military equipment to Russia since 2023 to help support its war in Ukraine. The shipments have been made using both ships and North Korea’s rail networks to transport the supplies through the land border with Russia.
In exchange, North Korea has received more than 9,000 Russian containers likely filled with aid, including possibly fuel, which could help North Korea expand its winter military training activities. This arms-for-aid exchange accelerated after a summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin in September 2023.
| Alleged Arms-for-Aid Exchange |
|---|
| North Korea to Russia: 7,000 containers of munitions and military equipment |
| Russia to North Korea: 9,000 containers of aid, potentially including fuel |
Both Moscow and Pyongyang have denied the existence of an arms deal between the countries. However, the South Korean military is evaluating whether some recent North Korean missile tests are aimed at verifying the performance of weapons it intends to send to Russia, further suggesting a deepening cooperation between the two nations.
Potential Consequences
Challenges for the U.S. and Allies
This burgeoning relationship poses challenges for the U.S. and its allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region:
- In Europe, North Korea’s assistance may allow Putin to prevail in Ukraine when U.S. support is in question.
- In Asia, Russian military technology could advance North Korea’s military satellite, nuclear submarine, and ICBM programs.
There are growing concerns over military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, including the possibility of a Kim Jong-un visit to meet Putin. Discussions are underway on how to deal with the North Korea-China-Russia partnership and its implications.
Implications of Russia-North Korea Arms Transfers
Analyses are being conducted on the impact of the war in Ukraine on Russia-North Korean arms transfers and the potential transfer of a Russian ICBM to North Korea. The U.S. White House has stated that the U.S. will continue to impose sanctions “against those working to facilitate arms and refined petroleum transfers between Russia and North Korea”.
| Potential Consequences |
|---|
| North Korea assisting Russia in Ukraine conflict |
| Russia providing military technology to North Korea |
| Transfer of Russian ICBM to North Korea |
The U.S. and South Korea launched a task force in March 2024 aimed at preventing North Korea from procuring illicit oil. The U.S. and others have also accused North Korea of transferring weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine, which both Moscow and Pyongyang deny.
Shifting Regional Dynamics
Closer cooperation between Russia, China, and North Korea could be a consequence of this meeting, which could nudge SK to deepen its engagement in the Ukraine situation. However, there are potential downsides for both sides – Russia could face consequences if it helps NK in exchange for weapons, while NK may not get the advanced weapons it desires.
Furthermore, North Korea has been expanding its nuclear and missile programs, and has been using cyberattacks on cryptocurrency companies to fund these weapons of mass destruction programs.
Conclusion
The escalating cooperation between Russia and North Korea poses significant challenges to the international community’s efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula and maintain stability in the region. Russia’s alleged violation of UN sanctions by exporting refined petroleum to North Korea, coupled with reports of arms transfers from Pyongyang to aid Moscow’s war efforts, signals a worrying trend that could undermine the global non-proliferation regime.
While the full implications of this deepening partnership remain uncertain, it is clear that decisive action is required to uphold the integrity of the sanctions and prevent the further proliferation of nuclear and missile technologies. Continued diplomatic efforts, coupled with robust enforcement mechanisms, will be crucial in addressing this evolving security threat and promoting a peaceful resolution to the longstanding tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
