WASHINGTON — The surprising corn and soybean supply reductions in the recent quarterly stocks estimates were plugged into the Oct. 9 agricultural supply and demand estimates, pushing price projections upward.
Here are details of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s report.
Soybeans: The U.S. season-average price for 2020-2021 is forecast at $9.80 a bushel, 55 cents higher than last month.
• Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 45 million on lower harvested area.
• Harvested area was reduced 0.7 million acres to 82.3 million, with reductions for Kansas, North Dakota and South Dakota.
• The soybean yield is projected at 51.9 bushels per acre, unchanged from the September forecast.
• Soybean supplies for 2020-2021 are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, down 96 million on lower production and beginning stocks.
• Despite reduced supplies, soybean exports were increased by 75 million bushels on record early-season sales.
• With smaller supplies and increased exports, ending stocks are projected at 290 million bushels, 170 million lower than the September estimate.
• Global ending stocks were lowed by 4.9 million tons to 88.7 million.
Corn: The average price for the current marketing year was increased 10 cents from last month to $3.60 per bushel.
• Corn production is forecast at 14.722 billion bushels, down 178 million with a reduction in harvested area and a slight decline in yield to 178.4 bushels per acre.
• Corn supplies are forecast down sharply from last month, on a smaller crop and lower beginning stocks.
• Corn used for ethanol is down 50 million bushels, based on weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration into early October.
• Projected feed and residual use was reduced by 50 million bushels based on a reduced crop and higher expected corn.
• Ending stocks were lowered by 336 million bushels from last month to 2.167 billion bushels.
• Global corn ending stocks, at 300.5 million tons, are down 6.3 million from last month.
Wheat: The average price was bumped up 20 cents from September to $4.70 per bushel.
• Supplies were reduced by 32 million bushels, on the combination of lower beginning stocks and production as indicated by the National Agricultural Statistics Service grains stocks and small grains annual summary reports, respectively.
• Domestic use was increased by 10 million bushels, all on higher feed and residual use.
• The NASS grain stocks report indicated greater first quarter disappearance than previously estimated. Exports remain at 975 million bushels due to offsetting by-class changes.
• Projected ending stocks were reduced by 42 million bushels to 883 million, which would be the lowest ending stocks in six years.
• Projected 2020-2021 world ending stocks were raised 2.1 million tons to 321.5 million to a new record, with Russia accounting for most of the increase this month.
Corn (2020-2021 marketing year)
Total corn supply: 16.742 billion bushels
Exports: 2.325 billion bushels
Feed, residual use: 5.775 billion bushels
Food, seed, industrial use: 6.475 billion bushels
Ethanol and byproducts: 5.05 billion bushels
Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.167 billion bushels
Soybeans (2020-2021 marketing year)
Total soybean supply: 4.806 billion bushels
Seed, residual: 136 million bushels
Exports: 2.2 billion bushels
Crush: 2.18 billion bushels
Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 290 million bushels