But all of this misses the point.
There is one overarching reason Democrats had a tough Tuesday night and will potentially have a tough 2022. Many are missing the blindingly obvious forest while studying each individual leaf on each tree: President Joe Biden is not popular.
This manifests itself on issues.
The other lesson from Tuesday’s election is that we simply do not know where Biden will be yet. Some saw a GOP takeover in the House and Senate as inevitable even before last Tuesday night. One colleague told me the week before the elections that it was “in the bag.”
But nothing is ever guaranteed in politics, and a year is a very long time. As we absorb the results of Virginia’s race, Republicans should not be measuring curtains but focusing on their task of building the House where the curtains will hang.